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In a takeover bid for a certain company, management of the raiding firm believes that the takeover has a 0.65 probability of success if a member of the board of the raided firm resigns, and a 0.30 chance of success if she does not resign. Management of the raiding firm further believes that the chances for a resignation of the member in question are 0.70. What is the probability of a successful takeover?

In a takeover bid for a certain company, management of the raiding firm believes that the takeover has a 0.65 probability of success if a member of the board of the raided firm resigns, and a 0.30 chance of success if she does not resign. Management of the raiding firm further believes that the chances for a resignation of the member in question are 0.70. What is the probability of a successful takeover?

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