Exam 2

Most forecasting problems faced by the health services manager can be accomplished using some form of forecasting known as what?

judgment forecasting | ||

analytic forecasting | ||

expert forecasting | ||

genius forecasting |

A manager who is effective with forecasting will be able to do what?

reduce forecasting errors | ||

make accurate forecasts | ||

predict employee relationships | ||

eliminate error |

What should be the goal of analytic forecast methods?

Get the ‘right’ forecast. | ||

Choose the forecast that extends furthest into the future. | ||

Choose the forecast that minimizes systematic error. | ||

Choose the forecast that minimizes random error. |

What is another name for the analytic branch of forecasting?

judgmental forecasting | ||

genius forecasting | ||

expert forecasting | ||

statistical forecasting |

What is another term for forecast?

predict | ||

anticipate | ||

foreshadow | ||

guess |

If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using moving averages, n=2?

1 | ||

2 | ||

3 | ||

4 |

Which moving average best minimizes the variation in historical data and is the recommended moving average to use for forecasting?

1 | ||

2 | ||

3 | ||

4 |

The quantitative rationale for choosing between forecasting methods is known as what?

best fit predictor | ||

least error estimator | ||

line of best fit | ||

mean absolute deviation |

If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a 95% Confidence Interval?

1 | ||

2 | ||

3 | ||

4 |

Which is one of the three guiding principles of future forecasting?

Be liberal. | ||

Be transparent. | ||

Examine data. | ||

Use judgments. |

What is the fundamental mathematical principal behind regression?

algebraic linearity | ||

exponential smoothing | ||

parabolic forecasting | ||

non-linear estimation |

What does the y-intercept of a regression equation represent?

the predicted level of X when y equals 1 | ||

the predicted level of y when x equals 1 | ||

the predicted level of X when y equals zero | ||

the predicted level of y when x equals zero |

What is the purpose for using confidence intervals in regression forecasting?

to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the future | ||

to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the past | ||

to place ranges around linear point estimates that reside in a cluster | ||

to place ranges around linear point estimates that have minimal statistical congruence |

What is another name for regression analysis?

ordinary least squares regression | ||

extrapolated squares | ||

exponential regression | ||

atypical squares regression |

What is the purpose of regression analysis?

to construct a relationship between two or more variables | ||

to determine causality between two or more variables | ||

to establish variable interactions | ||

to predict causality among variables of data from the past |

An airplane with 100 seats can fly no more than 100 passengers at any one time. The limit of a system’s finite capacity is called what?

production limitation | ||

production horizon | ||

production planning | ||

production frontier |

Capacity analysis provides a quantitative methodology for establishing what?

production opportunities | ||

production constraints | ||

production successes | ||

production expenses |

The price per test is $85, and the variable cost per test is $15. Using this information, what is the breakeven point in volume if the allocated fixed costs were $350,000?

3,000 | ||

5,000 | ||

7,000 | ||

9,000 |

Service systems used to provide medical care are complex and involve multiple steps. The capacity of any service system is determined by the capacity of each individual step in the production process. The step that has the lowest capacity determines what?

the entire system’s success rate | ||

the potential failure of the entire system | ||

the capacity of the entire system | ||

the efficiency of the entire system |

The price per test is $85, and the variable cost per test is $15. What is the contribution margin per test?

$65 | ||

$70 | ||

$75 | ||

$80 |

In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?

infinite | ||

approximately 20 minutes | ||

approximately 40 minutes | ||

approximately 1 hour |

When queuing theory models are used in the development of appointment system, giving appointments every 15 minutes is the same as an arrival rate of how many per hour?

4 | ||

5 | ||

10 | ||

12 |

Queuing theory calculations describe arrivals for the line according to which probability distribution?

Poisson | ||

Exponential | ||

Parabolic | ||

Hyperbolic |

Queuing theory calculations describe service times according to which probability distribution?

Poisson | ||

Exponential | ||

Parabolic | ||

Hyperbolic |

In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 6 per hour and the arrival rate is 4 per hour, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?

undeterminable | ||

approximately 20 minutes | ||

approximately 30 minutes | ||

approximately 1.5 hours |